Alchemy Lockbox Gambling Data (v1.5)

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Alchemy Lockbox Gambling Data (v1.5)

Postby japster » Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:16 am

Data is accurate as of 23/12/12, v1.5.

I gambled 1650 times exactly and charted what I got. Unfortunately I was unable to get the 10gs lockbox reward even ONCE, indicating how rare it is. I know it exists since someone did mention they won it in global. Anyway for those interested, here is the data, in % and raw figures.

Data has been rounded up to 3 significant figures.

80 squire valor: 206 times, 12.485%
800 squire valor: 49 times, 2.970%

40 soldier valor: 341 times, 20.667%
400 soldier valor: 12 times, 0.727%

20 knight valor: 298 times, 18.061%
200 knight valor: 5 times, 0.303%

10 captain valor: 225 times, 13.636%
100 captain valor: 2 times, 0.121%

10 hero tokens: 221 times, 13.394%
100 hero tokens: 3 times, 0.182%

1 gold shield: 67 times, 4.061%
10 gold shield: 0

500 silver: 221 times, 13.394%
5000 silver: 0 (I'm unsure if this reward even exists. I've never obtained it in my entire, illustrious career of gambling since 1.4. If it does, then it must be just as rare, if not more rare than 10gs!)

Conclusions:

1. As such, we can see that Soldier Valor is the most common alchemy lockbox reward, followed by Knight Valor. Therefore players stuck in the might level of SV/KV raids may want to consider gambling to supplement their might growth, ESPECIALLY SV raid players.

2. Squire Valor, Captain Valor, 500 silver, and 10 hero tokens rewards seem to be at about equal rates. Trying to get a moderate amount of these items (notably Captain Valor) should be reasonable with a decent sum of money.

3. Gold shield reward has been DRASTICALLY reduced this patch. I could swear it was about close to 15% in v1.4. Gambling for GS is now no longer profitable/viable unless you have HUGE amounts of silver.

P.S. this experiment took me a gross amount of 8.25m silver (not counting the earnings made back from 500s lockbox rewards). I would have gambled more but I'm saving some silver for upcoming enchantments not yet released, just in case ;)
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Re: Alchemy Lockbox Gambling Data (v1.5)

Postby Bbbb » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:56 pm

The calculations I ran on the 1.4 lockboxes was that gold was about a 17% drop. The good news at least is that free app GS is much easier to get now than back when 1.4 was released.
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50+ million Silver? Really?

Postby Bj_Knows » Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:24 pm

Bbbb wrote:The calculations I ran on the 1.4 lockboxes was that gold was about a 17% drop. The good news at least is that free app GS is much easier to get now than back when 1.4 was released.


Venan has been quiet, except for Lord_Venan's one comment, but wild irresponsible speculation among players has it, that Venan was forced to nerfed gs and improved valor because of extreme hoarding. Some characters had saved 50+ million silver coins waiting for next valor, after Knight Valor, to be added to lockbox. If true, I would expect gs to go up after extreme hoarding done with. If extreme hoarding continues, I expect gs to remain the same.

Lord_Venan RE: Hoarding
( viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1468&p=6041#p6041 )
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Half a Solution

Postby Bj_Knows » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:03 pm

Bj_DWR wrote:If true, I would expect gs to go up after extreme hoarding done with. If extreme hoarding continues, I expect gs to remain the same.

Lord_Venan RE: Hoarding
( viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1468&p=6041#p6041 )


Overview:
Appears Venan has changed Gold Shields in the game.
Nerfed Gold Shields from Alchemist Lockbox.
Buffed Gold Shields from Loot Drops.
Levels playing field.

Body:
Still early Data, but it appears Alchemist Lockbox should now be nicknamed "Valor Lockbox". Several sources have reported increased Gold Shield Loot Drops. If this is not an observational bias, this would indicate that Venan's solution to extreme hoarding is to increase Loot Drops but reduce Lockbox Gold Shields to make it fair to new characters and players since they would get the increased Loot Drops at the same time v1.0 characters and original players get the increased Loot Drops.
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Re: Alchemy Lockbox Gambling Data (v1.5)

Postby EJ_Ayuta » Tue Jan 01, 2013 9:36 am

I can confirm 10 gs from the lockbox. I merely spent 200000 silver on it though and I got them.
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The Alchemical Lockbox

Postby PsyBomb » Tue Sep 10, 2013 7:01 pm

I can't seem to find hard data on this anywhere, so I'm starting this topic up to gather the information. If anyone out there know what can drop from these chests, please post it here, but what I'm mostly looking for in order to get a good chart up is data points. I don't have the spare silver to get a ton of them, but if any of you do please post what you get each time. All I have is what I've seen, and I didn't think to write it down at the time so I won't write details I don't know for sure.

Known possible drops:
Silver (the "I lose" drop)
Hero Tokens
Squire's Valor
Soldier's Valor
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Re: The Alchemical Lockbox

Postby DreamingDæmon » Tue Sep 10, 2013 7:32 pm

Don't have data, but here are all the items, and quantities:

Silver (500)
Squire Valour (80, 800)
Soldier Valour (40, 400)
Knight Valour (20, 200)
Captain Valour (10, 100)
Hero Tokens (10, 100)
Gold Shields (1, 10)

In all instances, the first value is common, the second is quite rare in comparison. I've had 10GS drop a handful of times from thousands of boxes.
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Re: The Alchemical Lockbox- Merged

Postby EricM » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:26 am

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