-32 vs. +1

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-32 vs. +1

Postby Jumper » Thu Mar 26, 2015 12:37 pm

I have a simple question (which I think is more relevant than the existence of RNG in PvP) This scenario has definitely happened to everyone. You get a matchup against an opponent with 600 less rating than you (ex: Masters vs plat2). If you win, you get +1 and if you lose you get -32. This seems to indicate a 32:1 odds of winning the match. However, there are matchups that are clearly not 32:1. For example WM vs Justie. If I had the choice I would never accept such a challenge. ( I bet Purao feels the same.... he wins 25 matches in a row and loses 1, he ends up -7 on the day...lol) Taking from boxing for example, the plat 2 hasn't earned the right to challenge the masters player. I wonder if there should be a "rating difference cap" set on PvP matchups?

At low levels I suppose you get as many matchups with -600 rating players as +600 rating so it evens out but at masters it sucks!

I'd like to hear some comments or suggestions on this.
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby Sir_TâpsØlòt » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:19 pm

I've been face rolled by many many platinum and gold mages. The losses are enough to make me do my epic neeeerrrrrddddd raaaaaaggggeeeee call and smash my phone. Only takes a lucky resist or super OP incinerate crit to cripple any toon.
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby EricM » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:29 pm

I agree jump.

My odds of winning versus a wm at 2000-2400 rating are somewhere around 3:2... so if no one at the top is queuing... it seems to indicate that I am better off not PVPing than PVPing...

which isn't the mentality that should be spreading...
Last edited by EricM on Thu Mar 26, 2015 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby DreamingDæmon » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:50 pm

EricM wrote:I agree jump.

My odds of winning versus a wm at 2000-2400 rating are somewhere around 4:1... so if no one at the top is queuing... it seems to indicate that I am better off not PVPing than PVPing...

which isn't the mentality that should be spreading...


Do you think this may be why so many at the top have stopped actively PvPing, leading to the "squatting" issue discussed elsewhere?
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby Capricorn_Rainbucket » Thu Mar 26, 2015 4:42 pm

@ dd
That's certainly a good point and may be some of the reasons people stop pvping in masters, nothing more frustrating then losing 30+ pts to someone who really shouldn't have beat you. Guess the exception would be lag >.> I hate losing to lag!!!! Anyways I also think it's like they go well I got the masters feat I got my vanity item I don't care anymore, not very much incentive left... I'm kinda in the latter category I am bored of pvp and I definitly don't do it as much as when I was in gold and plat leagues.
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby EricM » Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:02 pm

It very well might be Dae. I've never cared much for ranking myself, which is why I still do my 20-40 matches a week when I'm free but if you're actively pursuing getting to the top... with class imbalances the way they are, the system is designed to keep you from getting too far ahead. It definitely might be contributing to the camping... who knows honestly lol. One one hand though, many of those masters might be inactive or just not active PVPers. I barely consider myself active. I try and drop down under top 10-15 or so when I'm not around so I'm not inadvertently screwing up leaderboards, but as a maxed player, unless I throw 20-30 matches, there's no easy way to drop out of the rankings if I'm going to be away from BOH for a month or two.

I mean, I understand why it has to be that way obviously, else Purao/Ceka/Japster and anyone else who win the vast majority of their matches would keep on rising in rating forever. There has to come a point where a loss hits hard enough to knock you back down to regular standings. It's definitely frustrating though. I had a 30 win streak going and it had gained me an incredible 87 points lol. Lost 3 of the next 5 and dropped 84 lol. But while such rock-paper-scissors matching exists, it's not truly ELO in the spirit of things.

----End

Extra stuff:

ELO was developed for chess as a means of rating skill level among opponents. The difference in two opponent's ELO ratings was an indication of odds.

Under chess ELO, if I had 2800 rating, and I fought:

Someone with 2000 rating, I have a greater than a 99% chance of winning, or >100:1 odds (+1 on a win, -32 on a loss)
Someone with 2400 rating, I have a 91% chance of winning, or 10:1 odds (+3 on a win, -29 on a loss)
Someone with 2600 rating, I have a 76% chance of winning, or 3:1 odds (+8 on a win, -24 on a loss)
Someone with 2800 rating, I have a 50% chance of winning, or 1:1 odds (+16 on a win, -16 on a loss)

And flipped for players higher than me. They implemented this in BOH... but unlike chess... boh matches aren't purely skill based. And so, these odds, and therefore ELO ratings in BOH are meaningless other than as a very rough estimate of gear/gems/skill level.

I've fought atleast 8 warmages under 2000 rating in my last 100 fights... of which I've gone 5-3, or around 60% win rate... which in chess would be the miracle of the century (It would literally be the equivalent of me beating a chess grandmaster three times in eight fights).
Last edited by EricM on Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby DreamingDæmon » Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:33 pm

This is actually interesting enough that I think I might do some, just to see...!
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby Illy_the_Red » Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:16 pm

Nicely summed up Eric :)
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby My_Starlight » Thu Mar 26, 2015 6:53 pm

EricM wrote:I am better off not PVPing than PVPing....


I couldn't agree with you more Eric :mrgreen:

I don't want to tarnish my perfect PvP record of 0-0-0 :lol:
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Re: -32 vs. +1

Postby Jumper » Fri Mar 27, 2015 12:45 pm

DreamingDæmon wrote:
EricM wrote:I agree jump.

My odds of winning versus a wm at 2000-2400 rating are somewhere around 4:1... so if no one at the top is queuing... it seems to indicate that I am better off not PVPing than PVPing...

which isn't the mentality that should be spreading...


Do you think this may be why so many at the top have stopped actively PvPing, leading to the "squatting" issue discussed elsewhere?


That's on of the reasons. but as discussed elsewhere, ratings seem to swing 200 points in either direction, so lets say your average rating is 2700: then you vary between 2600and 2800. People being people figure that the unlikely winning streak that gets them to 2800 is where they should live, hence when they go down to 2700 they freak. and in the unlikely streak that they go to 2600 they freak more! So the next time they make it to 2800 they stop.

Your peak PvP rating is not where you belong it's the average value.
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