1MA_scurvynaive wrote:RF_finnpalm wrote:Bj_Knows wrote:I'd be interested in where you got 0.25% as a number.

I think that's because it takes approximately 400 combats before they show up. Not that that mathematically means a 1 in 400 chance, but I think that people use it that way. It took me about 400 battles too. If I'm average, which is most likely if it's a bell curve, then.. *calculates*..

EDIT: Can someone do the math please? I'm on a tram and it's shaking. :3

EDIT2: What I'm trying to say is that other elites that drop pots, holigob or lucky only becomes more probable to meet if you spend e in one go. The moment you leave the zone the probability resets. The same happens after you encounter them.

But let's assume that the game remembers how much e you've spent in either of the vile realm maps, and it actually works like this, what is the formula for the other elites and event mobs? Or perhaps it's a flat rate chance and after 399 battles the probability automatically becomes 1. I think it would be a bit cumbersome for the game servers to keep track of every single player farming in the vile realm so I'm not sure..

Ya I more or less pulled that number out of a hat based on personal experience estimates. The fact that others are reporting a dev told them it was 1 in 400 would be pure luck on my guesswork lol.

That's not really what I meant. The number stated by a dev had been lowered too according to the rumor however, which means an average of players meeting them 1 in 400 is more probable, although the actual chance is lower.

What I mean is, if the chance is 1 in 400, some players will be lucky and stumble upon Saydon immediately, while some will be unlucky and meet him only once in 400 statistically. The average of those players will be somewhere halfway. The only way to get closer to the actual 1 in 400 number would be by counting every players encounters over a longer span of time in which case the number would move towards an average of 1 in 400. But that probability is based on an infinite amount of time, and we're not quite there yet, only a couple of weeks into 2.0, so basically I would estimate that the number, based on most players claim that it has taken them about 400 fights, is 1 in 800. If, as some players have stated, players have spent between 200 and 400 fights before encountering any of the mobs, the actual number is closer to 1 in 600. The more time that passes and the more players that encounter them, the better the statistics will become for us to extract a more correct number. As of now however, I'd estimate it's between 1 in 600 and 1 in 800. But I have what? Five accountings to go by? Not really a good foundation for statistical conclusions.